2024 has been a good year for pension savers with new records in the stock markets. The US and European stock markets increased in May after a fall in April.
The MSCI World index is up by 9.5 per cent after the first five months of the year. Among other things, this is emphasised by a 23.7 per cent increase in large shares such as the US "Magnificent 7", which includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla shares. The large European "GRANOLAS" shares (which include Novo Nordisk, Nestlé, L’Oreal and GSK) are also up by 10.9 per cent, and shares in developing countries increased by 7.5 per cent.
Bonds are also progressing well. Here, the exchange rates increased in May after four months of rising interest rates and falling exchange rates.
Favourable winds have been behind shares and bonds and are now also positively affecting your pension return. The customers with the highest risk have obtained the highest returns this year, ranging from 6.5 to 8.9 per cent. In particular, VækstPension Index and VækstPension Aftryk have performed well with returns of 8.9 and 8.7 per cent, respectively.
| Return in per cent year to date 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| VP Aktiv | VP Index | VP Aftryk | |
| High | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Medium | 4.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Low | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
*15 years until retirement
The economy has developed better than expected this year The service sector is growing due to a strong labour market and increasing purchasing power. The global manufacturing sector is also on the right track after a recession last year, which is positive - in particular for Germany. And the announcement from the US Federal Reserve that interest rates will not be raised further has led to optimism and expectations of lower interest rates, which also benefits us in Europe – e.g., it has a positive impact on Danish homeowners through the mortgage credit
Inflation in the United States has been higher than expected at the beginning of the year but is now showing signs of a decline. Some economists speculate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September. In Europe, the first cut in interest rates is expected in June, and then with two further cuts this year due to falling inflation. Switzerland and Sweden have already begun to lower interest rates.
We are predicting a return on pension savings for the whole year of between 6 and 9 per cent, driven by the positive economic growth prospects and an expectation that the European Central Bank, ECB, will lower interest rates this summer, and that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates during autumn.
The greatest uncertainties are linked to the war in Ukraine and the situation in Gaza, which can affect commodity prices, global trade and inflation.
